Good morning!

Attached with this email, you'll find January’s Agent Metrics Report, the Tracking Sales in Fresno and Clovis Google Sheet, my commentary,  and real estate and insurance-specific articles. I hope you find the information useful.

Highlights from the Fresno and Clovis real estate markets are below:

• Median Sold price was UP ⬆️  from December 2024:
  • January 2025 $420,000.00
  • December 2024 $405,000.00
•  314 homes sold:
  • 0.95% FEWER ⬇️ homes sold January of 2025 than in January of 2024 (317 homes sold January of 2024 versus 314 homes sold January of 2025 that is 3 FEWER ⬇️ homes)
  • 14.44 % FEWER ⬇️  homes sold January of 2025 than December of 2024  (367 homes sold December of 2024 versus 314 homes sold in January of 2025)
•  Average Days on Market:
  • Average Days on Market for homes that sold in January 2025 was 41 days.
    • This is MORE ⬆️ than December 2024. DOM for December 2024 was 36 days.
  •  The average day on the market for homes with no price changes was 21 days.
    • Sales Price versus Offer Price was 99.3%
  •  The average day on the market for homes with 1+ price changes the was 73 days
    • Sales Price versus Offer Price was 92.6%
• Median For Sale Price $437,990.00 versus Sold Price of $420,000.00
• One (1) bank owned property sold:
  • Other Real Estate Owned (OREO) sales were FLAT ↔️ from December.
• 408 homes went under contract.
• 620 New Properties were listed for sale.
• Months’ Supply Inventory of 2.3 months.
• 2025 Inventory levels:
  • January MSI - 2.3 Locally versus The National Association of REALTORS®️ 2.9
• 2024 Inventory levels:
  • January MSI - 1.9 Locally versus The National Association of REALTORS®️ 2.6
  • February MSI - 2.1 Locally The National Association of REALTORS®️ 2.2
  • March MSI - 1.8 Locally The National Association of REALTORS®️ 1.8
  • April MSI - 2.0 Locally The National Association of REALTORS®️ 2.0
  • May MSI - 2.0 Locally The National Association of REALTORS®️ 2.2
  • June MSI - 2.4 Locally The National Association of REALTORS®️ 2.1
  • July MSI - 2.1  Locally The National Association of REALTORS®️ 2.0
  • August MSI 2.1 Locally The National Association of REALTORS®️ 2.2
  • September MSI 2.7 Locally The National Association of REALTORS®️ 2.6
  • October  MSI - 2.4 Locally The National Association of REALTORS®️ 2.6
  • November  MSI - 2.7 Locally The National Association of REALTORS®️ 2.5
  • December MSI - 2.7 Locally The National Association of REALTORS®️ 2.4  

• The Fresno and Clovis markets still have low levels of inventory (although they are increasing).

My Commentary:

In my December 2024 Update, I suggested that if housing and homeownership truly mattered to California’s ruling class, they’d push harder to boost housing production. Preparing for this update, I spoke with Jordan Levine, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist at the California Association of REALTORS®, and I  reviewed the Governor’s Budget Summary for 2025-2026. Levine shared residential building permit totals by decade:

• 1970s: 2,151,064 permits (215,106/year)
• 1980s: 2,059,113 permits (205,911/year)
• 1990s: 1,095,822 permits (109,582/year)
• 2000s: 1,424,570 permits (142,457/year)
• 2010s: 851,150 permits (85,115/year)
• 2020s (2020–2024): 458,051 permits (91,610/year)

California’s population was 19.97 million in 1970 and is estimated at 39.5 million as of January 31, 2025. If 215,106 permits sufficed annually for 19.97 million, could we—for argument’s sake—expect 430,000 permits yearly with just over 39 million? Yet, the 2020s average just 91,610—less than a quarter of that.

The Governor’s Budget Summary for 2025-2026, under “Housing,” offers platitudes and vague promises but no concrete plan to tackle the housing availability crisis. Levine’s data shows a 1.72-million-permit shortfall since 1990. At 2023’s pace (115,000 permits), erasing that deficit would take 15 years—too slow for a state in crisis.

The budget leaves key questions unanswered. I’d like specifics:

• What executive actions has the state taken to turn excess properties into housing, and how many permits will result?
• Where exactly are the “tens of thousands of new affordable homes” financed by the state? Is that enough?
• How is California holding cities and counties accountable for blocking housing production, and what’s the outcome?
• When will communities meet their housing element goals?
• How will a new agency—typically a bureaucratic drag—increase production?
• Why conflate housing availability and homelessness? Aren’t they distinct issues?
• What’s being done so teachers, firefighters, nurses, plumbers, and hospitality workers can afford a home?

The budget’s three proposals—“Reduce Cost,” “Enhanced Accountability,” and “Housing and Transportation”—lack teeth:

• “Reduce Cost”: Which costs? The ambiguity feels deliberate.
• “Enhanced Accountability”: What are these “strengthened mechanisms” to enforce housing obligations? No measurable steps are offered.
• “Housing and Transportation”: Which barriers to infill housing near transit will be removed? Name them.

Without specifics, the ruling class’s commitment feels hollow. Available housing’s a crisis; platitudes won’t build homes.

Articles/Interviews/Presentations that may be of interest*:

1. Slowing demand and growing supply are changing the balance of power in the housing market
2. If you’re negotiating the purchase or sale of a home, either on your own or in conjunction with a real-estate agent, here are some things to consider
3. How your home can shelter you from taxes with the breaks bestowed by Congress
4. The era of falling apartment rents looks to be nearly over
5. State Farm aggressively grew in Los Angeles, despite getting overweight on fire risk, but decided to cut thousands of policies last year, adding to California’s home-insurance crisis.
6. Building a fire-resistant home starts with the right materials
7. Scott Turner, the new Department of Housing and Urban Development secretary, says he plans to quickly launch a review to root out inefficiencies at the agency

*Access to some articles may require subscription

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